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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.