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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.