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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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