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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible in which election day turned out somewhat badly for him, where the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. However overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.